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Extra info for Crain's New York Business - 21 February 2011
Use the largest value returned for today's indicator. Thus, we let the market determine the lookback interval,rather than use a fixed arbitrary one as many current indicators do. ). Since the curve of Figure 1 bends at a fairly sharp corner, the entire curve can be approximated by only two straight lines. This means that the markets, to a very good approximation, can be thought of as displaying two distinct personalities. The corner of Figure 1 is showing us where the dividing line between short- and longterm behavior is, between seven and eight days.
Again, the last seven months are shown for better detail (see Figure 4). Notice the reduction of signals when applying the trading bands to the system. Remember, determine the dominant cycle. Select the short exponential average equal to one half of that cycle. Use a longer term exponential average equal to six times the short one. Then place an arithmetic moving average over the difference between the two exponential averages. The length of the arithmetic average should be three times that of the short exponential average.
1 Stocks & Commodities V. 8:10 (377-381): Early Trend Identification by John F. Ehlers widening from the initial position. The uniform density would make the sum of the paths look like smoke plume. Further, random walk does not necessarily mean chaos. A minor variation of the drunkard's walk problem is to allow the random coin-flip decision to control the change of direction rather than the direction itself— that is, the random variable becomes momentum instead of direction. The partial differential equation describing this condition is known as the Telegrapher's Equation.