Comment tremble la main invisible: Incertitude et marches by Éric Brian

By Éric Brian

Il est largement admis aujourd’hui que los angeles crise financière amorcée en 2007, et accentuée � l’automne 2008, a révélé une faille dans les systèmes de gestion des risques, une défaillance des concepts de fixation des prix et une démesure des interventions spéculatives. Répondant � ce constat, ce livre suggest une nouvelle approche de l. a. cohérence des marchés – de ce que Adam Smith a appelé l. a. « major invisible ». Il examine les conséquences de cette hypothèse sur l. a. modélisation des phénomènes financiers et le comportement des investisseurs.

Issu d’une vingtaine d’années de recherches en épistémologie des sciences économiques et sociales, l’ouvrage s’adresse aux économistes, aux sociologues et aux mathématiciens. En six chapitres, il présente une esquisse de l’histoire des rapports entre économie et mathématiques du hasard ; une définition du cadre hypothétique retenu pour l’analyse ; un bilan de l. a. standpoint probabiliste sur los angeles cohérence des marchés ; une critique des conceptions de l. a. valeur fondée sur des cadres désormais dépassés ; une exploration de l’incertitude des marchés financiers ; enfin, un élargissement de los angeles « théorie de l’action rationnelle ». Il s’agit finalement de rendre compte aussi bien des activities de donneurs d’ordres surinformés que de celles d’exclus du monde économique régulier.

Au fil de l’ouvrage, il apparaît clairement que los angeles « major invisible » tremble aléatoirement, et pas toujours l� où on l’imagine. Les associations et les calculs économiques enregistrent et transforment cette incertitude. Les attentes de chacun lui répondent, les plus mesurées comme les plus extravagantes.

Éric Brian, historien des sciences et sociologue, est directeur d’études � l’École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) et dirige los angeles Revue de synthèse. Il est membre de los angeles path du CNRS.

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However, in the following I will ignore these qualifications of schema (T), and focus on the initial simple version of (T) only. The important thing for our purposes is that the schema specifies a precise sense in which epistemic reasons for some belief are related to the value of having that belief. If reasons for forming beliefs about propositions are value-driven, then epistemic reasons are value-driven too, in the sense that they entail that one ought to believe particular propositions in the context of a value-driven reason only.

T – pro tanto) Necessarily, if S has epistemic reason to believe that p (to degree D), then [if S has a pro tanto reason to form a belief about p, then, in the absence of opposing reasons, S ought to believe that p (to degree D)]. However, in the following I will ignore these qualifications of schema (T), and focus on the initial simple version of (T) only. The important thing for our purposes is that the schema specifies a precise sense in which epistemic reasons for some belief are related to the value of having that belief.

Present or non-present) aim of forming beliefs about those propositions. It is this fact that explains the special relationship between epistemic reasons, reasons to form beliefs about certain propositions, and ought-statements, 30 asbjørn steglich-petersen explicated in the previous section. This claim obviously stands in need of further clarification. A helpful way of doing so will be to test it against a number of objections. 6 objections Perhaps the most influential objection to standard instrumentalist accounts of epistemic reasons is that it would make epistemic reasons hypothetical in a sense they are clearly not.

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