Business Cycle Theory: A Survey of Methods and Concepts by Professor Dr. Günter Gabisch, Dr. Hans-Walter Lorenz (auth.)

By Professor Dr. Günter Gabisch, Dr. Hans-Walter Lorenz (auth.)

"Is the enterprise cycle obsolete?" This usually brought up name of a ebook edited by means of Bronfenbren­ ner with the implicit confirmation of the query mirrored the angle of mainstream macroeconomics within the Nineteen Sixties concerning the empirical relevance of cyclic motions of an economic climate. The profitable source of revenue guidelines, theoretically grounded in Keynesian macroec­ onomics, looked as if it would have eased or maybe abolished the fluctuations in Western economies which inspired stories of many classical and neoclassical economists for greater than a hundred years. The reasoning at the back of the conviction that company cycles could more and more be­ come inappropriate was once particularly uncomplicated: if an economic climate fluctuates for no matter what cause, then it's often attainable to neutralize those cyclic motions by way of anticyclic call for regulations. From the Fifties until eventually the mid-1960s enterprise cycle concept had frequently been consid­ ered both as an appendix to progress conception or as an educational workout in dynamical economics. the typical enterprise cycle types have been basically multiplier-accelerator types whose dependence on specific parameter values (in order to show oscillatory movement) prompt a slightly inconceivable incidence of power fluctuations. The obvi­ ous luck in compensating company cycles in these days avoided extensive quandary with the incidence of cycles. really, enterprise cycle conception changed into stabilization idea which investigated theoretical probabilities of stabilizing a fluctuating economic climate. Many macroeconomic textbooks seemed within the Sixties which for that reason pointed out enterprise cycle concept with inquiries at the percentages to stabilize economies via energetic monetary or financial policies.

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This chapter contains the class of multiplier-accelerator models that constitute the "traditional" mathematical business cycle models. Representative for this class of models, the basic approaches of Samuelson and Hicks will be introduced. The presentation of some modifications of these two basic models is followed by Hicks' non-linear ceilingfloor model (basically still a model relying on exogenous forces) and Kalecki's investment delay model. 1. Discrete-Time Shock-Dependent Models A time concept is called discrete if time is conceived as the succession of periods t of finite and equal length.

4. 7 in prices of 1962 Source: Deutsche Bundesbank (1973), p. 29. 4 Energy as an Additional Factor of Production The concept of potential GNP based on a production function has been improved by Rasche/Tatom (1977), who introduced energy as an additional factor of production into the production function. After the oil price shock in 1973, the supply conditions for energy resources had changed drastically in the US economy as well as in Western Europe 36 Chapter 1 DM 600r-------------------------------~ Net Domestic Product 1962 rices billion DM 550r=~-=~=-~~-=~------------~~~ - - - potential _____ actual 500~------~~~---------- __z-------__4 450r---------------~~4-------------~ 400r-------~C-----------------------~ 350 ~~---------------~ A(t) 102.

Within this corridor a normal value was determined. Consequently, every series was evaluated according to its behavior within the corridor. 5 contains this indicator for the period 1959-1970. In later years this indicator was no longer used, apparently due to its lack of practicability and reliability. 19 It regularly asks several thousands of firms about new orders and how they assess the current economic situation. From these results the institute derives an indicator which provides a qualitative assessment of the current economic situation.

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